Why is there a Pilot Shortage?

The aviation industry in the US is facing a real pilot shortage. The global pilot shortage has turned into a crisis that touches every part of air transport, from regional airline routes to global carriers like Delta. The Bureau of Labor Statistics warns that the number of pilots needed in 2024 and over the next 20 years will outpace the pilot supply, driven by an aging pilot population nearing the retirement age of 65, and the many who took early exits during the covid-19 pandemic. The shortage of pilots and the shortage of qualified pilots already disrupt air travel, showing how fragile the system has become.

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Becoming an airline pilot or a commercial pilot requires expensive flight training and pilot training, with new pilot certifications, pilot certificates, and strict FAA standards adding years of work and high cost of becoming licensed. While pilot salaries rise and pilot hiring intensifies, the pipeline of new pilots remains too thin. This mismatch in supply and demand threatens aviation safety, strains the pilot workforce, and puts pressure on both airline and commercial pilots. The causes of the pilot shortage—from pilot and airline turnover to limited flight time and the slow pipeline of pilots—make it clear: the airline pilot shortage is no longer a distant problem but a coming shortage that the international air transport association says will last until the end of the decade. The industry will need more pilots, not fewer, and without enough trained pilots, even talk of a pilot surplus feels unrealistic.

The state of today’s pilot gap

The lack of pilots has become one of the toughest challenges facing the U.S. and the wider world. What used to be a manageable problem has grown into something much bigger, especially after the pandemic. The demand for new hires keeps climbing, while the number of qualified people ready to step into the cockpit just isn’t enough.

Consulting groups like Oliver Wyman warn that if nothing changes, the situation could get worse over the next decade. It’s not just a local concern either — carriers across continents feel the pressure. With many senior captains nearing retirement, the need to bring in and train the next generation is more urgent than ever. Without a steady stream of graduates from flight school, both commercial and regional operations will continue to feel the squeeze.

How the pandemic shook the industry

The pandemic hit aviation harder than almost any other sector. In just a few months, flight activity collapsed, leaving many crews grounded. Thousands of pilots either took early retirement packages or were furloughed, and hiring froze. Flight schools slowed down, too, since lockdowns and safety restrictions made training less accessible.

When demand for travel started to come back in 2022 and grew stronger in 2023, airlines suddenly faced a gap. The people who had stepped away weren’t there to return, and the next wave of graduates wasn’t ready yet. That mismatch left carriers scrambling to fill cockpits, raising pay and offering bonuses to keep the ones they had. Even now, the industry is still trying to rebuild the pipeline, but the lost years won’t be easy to make up.

Why the demand for pilots keeps rising

Even as the industry recovers, the demand for new hires shows no signs of slowing down. Travel is back, and with so many senior captains heading for retirement, carriers need fresh talent fast. Both large commercial operations and smaller regional carriers are competing for the same limited pool of qualified people.

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What’s driving the demand?

• Rebound in travel. By 2022 and through 2023, passenger numbers bounced back, putting pressure on carriers to restore schedules.
• Retirement wave. Many senior aviators are stepping away, leaving gaps that must be filled quickly.
• Competition for talent. Regional carriers often lose staff to bigger commercial airlines that can offer higher pay and better benefits.

Pay and career outlook

Airlines are raising salaries to attract and keep staff, and for those starting out, the career path is still one of the most rewarding in transportation. Becoming a commercial pilot, however, takes years of training, certifications, and experience — it’s not a quick process. The limited number of graduates from flight school each year is a bottleneck that slows down how fast the industry can rebuild its ranks.

Factor	Effect on workforce
Retirement	Shrinks the pool of experienced captains
Flight school output	Only a limited number of new hires each year
Competition	Regional carriers struggle to keep staff

Why the gap exists

 

It’s not a single issue behind the pilot gap — several factors have stacked up over time. Together, they’ve created the imbalance between demand and the available workforce.

Key reasons behind the problem:

• Aging workforce. Many senior captains are reaching retirement, which leaves a hole that takes years to fill.
• Tougher requirements. The FAA raised training standards, which increased both the time and cost for new candidates.
• Pandemic setbacks. Training programs slowed or shut down, while hiring froze, making the recovery much harder.

Each of these factors adds friction. With so many stepping away, fewer graduates coming out of flight school, and higher barriers to entry, the system struggles to keep pace. Unless changes are made, the next decade could see the gap widen even further.

Training bottlenecks that slow everything down

Even if plenty of people want to start a career in the cockpit, getting there isn’t simple. Barriers in education and training have turned into one of the biggest choke points for the industry.

Main barriers

Barrier	Why it matters	Consequence
Cost of flight school	Tuition can run into six figures	Many drop out before finishing
Limited flight instructors	Not enough mentors to guide students	Slower progress for those already enrolled
Capacity limits	Training programs can’t expand fast enough	Fewer graduates each year

With high costs and not enough instructors, fewer students are able to go all the way through. The demand for new hires is still strong, but the pipeline moves too slowly. Until the system grows its capacity, the imbalance will continue.

Why smaller carriers struggle more

For big commercial operators, raising pay and offering bonuses is tough but possible. For smaller regional carriers, it’s a different story. They don’t have the same budgets, yet they rely on a steady stream of new hires to keep flights going.

Big carriers vs. regional operators

Aspect	Large commercial carriers	Regional carriers
Pay & perks	Higher salaries, signing bonuses	Lower pay, limited benefits
Career path	Clearer long-term growth	Seen as a stepping stone
Retention	Easier to keep staff	Many leave once they build hours

The result is a constant turnover. Pilots often start in smaller outfits, gain experience, and then go for bigger opportunities. Communities served by these airlines feel the impact directly — fewer flights, less reliable schedules, and in some cases reduced service altogether.

Looking ahead. Projections and trends

Analysts agree that the pressure won’t ease soon. By 2025, the demand for new hires will stay high, and the wave of retirements will keep reshaping the workforce. Even with more people coming out of flight school, it won’t be enough to match what the industry needs.

Forecasts in numbers

Forecast	Consequence
High demand through 2025	Airlines will keep competing aggressively for talent
Retirement wave grows	More captains leaving than rookies entering
Training bottlenecks	Limited capacity slows progress year after year
Pressure on regional operators	Smaller communities risk losing connections

The next challenge is long term. If the gap continues, airlines may have to cut frequencies or even drop routes. That means higher costs for passengers and fewer choices in travel. Some carriers are already exploring automation and new business models as ways to adapt, but those shifts will take time.

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What could help fix the gap

There’s no single fix, but several steps could make the path into the cockpit easier and help carriers keep the staff they already have.

Possible solutions

• Expand training programs — opening more slots at flight schools and improving access to instructors.
• Cut overall costs — financial aid or subsidies could reduce the barrier for students who want to go through the process.
• Stronger pipelines — direct partnerships between schools and airlines give students a clear route from classroom to cockpit.
• Better pay and conditions — raising salaries and improving schedules can convince experienced aviators to stay longer.

The need for fresh talent isn’t going away, and demand will only stay strong in the years ahead. By making training more accessible and improving retention, the industry has a better chance of keeping up.

How the gap hits airlines and passengers

The shortage isn’t just a staffing issue — it directly shapes how carriers operate and how travelers experience their journeys.

For airlines, the main challenges are:

• Maintaining schedules — with fewer crews, keeping flights on time gets harder.
• Higher costs — salaries and bonuses rise as companies compete for staff.
• Pressure on existing teams — long hours can lead to fatigue and safety concerns.

What passengers feel most

Passenger impact	What It means in practice
Delays & cancellations	Missed connections and longer waits
Fewer options	Some routes, especially in smaller cities, risk being cut
Higher fares	Carriers pass rising costs on to travelers

 

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Even now, disruptions are still part of the travel experience. Until more people make it through training and into the cockpit, both airlines and passengers will continue to face the effects.

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